THE SPEED
FACTOR
What is form? Can you truly say that you can compare
racehorses who come from different classes, different
venues, different distances-with each runner having had
varying degrees of success-and make a legitimate
assumption as to the likely winner? Form as we know it is
the comparison of apples with oranges and rocks with
rhinestones. All that glistens is not necessarily the
winner of the next at Flemington. Doing the form can be
fun, it is a harmless mental exercise that can give
pleasure in the process. But it ceases to be a benign
hobby once you start risking your wages on a whim. Form
as we know it doesn't really exist. It is a phantom. You
saw it clearly in race three, but when you reached out to
touch it in the next it had vanished. You couldn't see it
anymore. It had gone and you were left very confused.
When I was working as a pedigree expert for
Melbourne's largest bloodstock agency I would often come
across speedratings when studying the racing and breeding
scene in the USA. These formats were inappropriate for
local conditions-but there was plenty of merit in the
concept. Imagine being able to assess a field by being
able to give each horse a figure to represent its true
speed over a distance. I researched the concept and
adapted it to suit Australian conditions. I have now used
Speedratings successfully for over ten years. When I
assess a race each runner has a value. This value varies
with distance, track and track condition. The variables
that I have learnt and modified over ten years allow me
to represent each runner with a figure that constantly
changes to suit the conditions of the day.
Speedratings is a tried and true concept that has one
sensational benefit over traditional horse racing
selection methods and ratings provided by handicappers
and other experts. That is: form as it is generally known
is totally discounted (and if you think about how
unpredictable the results are it is already totally
discredited) and SpeedForm is the basis of
assessment.
I approach each race with no bias, no preconceived
belief in the favourite or the in-form jockey. I make the
evaluations from the extensive database (of ten years,
culled at intervals but archived for reference) and rate
the horses according to their figures. Once this task is
complete I study the speed history of the runners and
overlap the mathematics with the possible variables of
the field as assembled. Speed margins may often not be
great enough to offset some other impediment on a given
day. This is also taken into account. Different race
scenarios are discussed in detail in the comments for
each race and advice is given with regards to the rated
runners.
Speedratings does not seek the obvious (and how many
obvious favourites fail? I see the crumpled tickets at
their feet and scowls upon the faces of those punting on
the short-priced obvious failure.). Speedratings
consistently selects winners at fantastic odds. Since we
have crossed over into cyberspace we have selected Lord
Luskin at $62.00; Lucky Rule at $40.00 and winners paying
in excess of $10.00 too numerous to mention (as well as a
quadrella of $1600 plus in first rated or recommended
selection). Our comprehensive Results page is riddled
with long priced winners. We select horses that pay more
for the place than did the winner of the same event.
Speedratings provides exceptional value whether you are
betting for the win, place, or seeking help to snare the
riches of an exotic selection.
It is possible to win betting on horseracing. I have
done so for many years. I treat racing as a business
(though it is no less enjoyable for me than it is for
you). I do not bet outside of my realm of knowledge. I do
not win every race or every meeting-such a claim would be
ridiculous. But I do win every year.
The concept of Speedratings is to produce a Speed
Guide for the use of the racing devotee. It can be used
as your sole criterion for selection, or you may wish to
incorporate Speedratings into the process from which you
make your own value decision. Either method has merit. At
least by taking note of Speedratings you will have given
yourself the added information that every serious punter
requires. Plus you will find when you weigh the merits of
speedratings against the cost of subscription it requires
a very small outlay to ensure that you have acquired all
the information necessary before you invest on the racing
venue for the day.
Each Melbourne Metropolitan meeting will be rated, as
will some country meetings that offer an exceptional
opportunity. Jumping events and early 2-Y-O races will
not be rated. Mid-week meetings and provincial meetings
will be rated only when they reach the desired criteria
in which Speedratings operate. A mid-week metropolitan
meeting would average two to four rated races per day; a
mid-week provincial might have only one or two races
rated, and these meetings are rated only
occasionally.
Subscribers now have sole access
to the post-race comments page. This feature of
Speedratings identifies many likely winners that win when
they next appear in a suitable event. This page of vital
information will be published at regular intervals as a
reference source to non-subscribers once the information
is no longer current. Here is an example:
10/2/99:
FLAMING ROBERTO 4TH ($20.90; $4.50) JUST GRABBED ON
LINE & DIDN'T APPEAR TO BE RIDDEN TO WIRE, WAS A
FANTASTIC EFFORT. SHE WAS REVVED UP TOO FAR FROM HOME AND
ALTHOUGH SHE LOOKED WINNER ON HOME TURN IT WAS OBVIOUS
(TO ME) THAT SHE COULD NOT POSSIBLY MAINTAIN SUCH A LONG
RUN. A PATIENT RIDE WOULD HAVE PRODUCED A PLENTIFUL
COLLECT.
Flaming Roberto won easily at
her next start in a weak class 3 event and paid $8.40
& $2.40.
Now, you have a basic understanding of the process. I
now must ask you to visit every page in the Speedratings
chain. Visit the Ratings
page and see the ratings and comments from the most
recent meetings. Visit our information rich
Results page and study the
highlights of previous months, click on the underlined
horses and go directly to the ratings and comments, then
scroll down for the results from the same meeting with
post race comments and TAB dividends. Take your time
here. Study entire meetings. Gauge the errors against the
successes. When you are satisfied that Speedratings has
something out of the ordinary to offer you can visit the
Subscription page. You will
be pleasantly surprised (if you have surfed your way
around other services-and I do suggest that you make
comparisons on quality and content) when you read our
subscription price. (And don't forget the
News And Views page that
will offer all sorts of information and comments.).
Speedratings costs approximately the same as a daily
newspaper. All of our wins and losses are there for the
world to see. We sometimes get it wrong, but as you read
the comments and results I am sure that you will
recognize the merit of the service which we provide.
Speedratings is a labour of love and an enterprise in
which we take great pride.